I transferred my tables of the governor, Senate, and competitive House races to Google Docs so everyone is free to contribute revisions to the tables as needed.
Here is my revised list of the governor races: http://spreadsheets.google.com…
Here is my revised list of the Senate races: http://spreadsheets.google.com…
Here is my revised list of the potentially competitive House races: http://spreadsheets.google.com…
Shouldn’t you put Mel Martinez’s name in italics? It seems odd to see “64” and the incumbent being left blank.
he will retire at the end of his term.
How do I log on? Peter King will be 66 and Bill Young 77 on election day. At least one of the Texas Republicans, IIRC, is in his 80s, maybe Sam Hall. If so, he and Bartlett are possible retirements.
AZ-Sen: Janet Napolitano isn’t running for senate in Arizona in 2010. There is absolutely no chance for her to drop her position and run for senate, it makes no sense to list her.
AR-Sen: Huckabee will not run for senate in 2010. He wants to keep his nose clean for a 2012 run. Same reason he didn’t challenge the freshman senator Pryor in 2008.
FL-Sen: Why isn’t Alex Sink or Kendrick Meeks listed? Both are known to be considering a senate race.
CO-Sen: The fact that it is rated as low, and less likely to flip than Illinois seems absurd on both counts.
NH-Sen: CSP is known to be considering a race against Greg, which is as much as Hodes has done. If Hodes is listed as a candidate, CSP should be too.
NC-Sen: I believe Moore has stated he will not be a candidate for anything in 2010.
OK-Sen: Why is this race medium? Henry has shown virtually no interest, so while it would be competitive if he ran, I would keep it low until there is at least some hint of speculation here.
PA-Sen: Patrick Murphy is also known to be considering, which is as much as we know about Schwarz. He should be listed as a potential candidate until we hear otherwise.
….but I think it’s too early to call the risk level of each race. Some of these Governors presiding over financial calamaties at home could become extremely unpopular by the time 2010 comes around.
In the Iowa Governor’s race, the only two names I hear bantered around on the Republican side are perennial also-ran Doug Gross and wingnut Congressman Steve King. King would almost certainly lose in a statewide race and Gross could only win if the Iowa electorate moves decidedly against Culver.
In Minnesota, there’s no chance in hell the DFL would give Mike Hatch another chance after he essentially forfeited a slam-dunk victory four days before the election in 2006. Aside from Rybak, a little candidate is Iron Range Senator Tom Bakk, who seems unlikely to ignite the metro area base in the primaries. I’d be surprised if glory-bound Pawlenty ran for re-election, so the major speculation in the months ahead is likely to be which Republicans are eager to fill Pawlenty’s shoes. Given that the 2010 Independence Party gadfly of the year is certain to take away at least 5% of the vote away from the DFL candidate, it’s a near certainty that whoever gets the Republican Party nomination will be Minnesota’s next Governor.
My knowledge of candidates from a lot of states isn’t that great, so I appreciate suggestions from everyone here.
I don’t agree with every rating, but everything’s kinda fuzzy right now anyway.
Just for AZ-SEN, a couple of names you should consider adding:
Terry Goddard (Attorney General) (People seem to take it for granted that he’s going to run for Governor, but he hasn’t actually said a damn thing either way, so he should probably at least be on the Senate watch list)
Phil Gordon (Phoenix Mayor)
Mary Manross (Scottsdale Mayor) (I think she might be friends with McSame, though)
Harry Mitchell is likely too old and Ann Kirkpatrick too new for either to be considered top tier.